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Leeds United are on the brink of relegation from the Premier League, with last weekend’s disappointing defeat against West Ham United all but confirming that the Yorkshire outfit will be back in the Championship next season.
Why are Leeds likely to be relegated?
Fingers could be pointed at a number of parties, with the players, management and boardroom all partly to blame for Leeds’ demise, with only a series of unlikely results enough to keep Sam Allardyce‘s side up on the final day.
It emphasises just how much of a crisis Leeds were in that they hired the former Bolton Wanderers boss as their interim until the end of the season after the Javi Gracia experiment ended badly as the Whites broke their own unwanted Premier League record of goals conceded in a calendar month under the Spanish manager.
Three separate managers in one campaign is never likely to end well and Leeds need only to look at the relative success of one-time relegation rivals Nottingham Forest and West Ham, both of whom have stuck with their managers in difficult times, to realise that perhaps they made a mistake in firing Jesse Marsch.
Andrea Radrizzani was applauded for his “ruthless” decision in sacking the American manager by Conor McGilligan following the 1-0 defeat to Forest in February but in retrospect, Leeds may have been better off keeping him at Elland Road.
Should Leeds have stuck with Marsch?
When the former RB Leipzig man was relieved of his duties at Elland Road, Leeds were outside the relegation zone on goal difference, despite having endured a winless run stretching to seven games.
Marsch had overseen impressive wins over Chelsea and Liverpool earlier in the campaign, while draws against Aston Villa and Newcastle would certainly be considered good results now given their standings.
The 49-year-old had taken on the almost impossible task of replacing Marcelo Bielsa in the 2021/22 season and was able to keep Leeds up with an impressive win against Brentford on the final day, so already had experience in avoiding relegation in difficult circumstances.
In total, Marsch would average 1.16 points per game during his time at Leeds, which is a significant improvement on the 0.92 points and 0.33 points accumulated by Gracia and Allardyce in their spells at the club.
Given that Leeds were on 18 points after 20 games when Marsch left, if we translate his overall record to the final 18 games of the domestic season, the Yorkshire outfit would have earned another 21 points to put them on 39 points, which is eight more than they currently have and probably would have kept them up.
Stability has proven itself to be key in the relegation battle, with Southampton, Leeds and Leicester City all likely to be relegated with interim managers, so Radrizzani will perhaps be wishing that he had kept his faith in Marsch back in February.
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